Propaganda G30S PKI

Jangan lupa sejarah, tapi jangan maksain juga nonton film propaganda yang meng-edit sejarah.

Jadi apa yang sebenernya kejadian di 30 September 1965? Here’s the findings from award-winning investigative journalist John Pilger:

Atau nonton cuplikan documentary nya John Pilger (9 menit 14 detik – subtitle Indonesia):

Findings nya John Pilger sejalan sama beberapa findings berikut ini:

  • “The Shock Docrtine” by Naomi Klein, chapter 2, sub-chapter: Lessons in regime change: Brazil and Indonesia.
  • “Indonesia: archipelago of fear” by Andre Vltcheck, page 16-38.
  • “Indonesia Etc” by Elizabeth Pisani, chapter 1 page 27-28, chapter 11, page 289-291
  • “A brief history of Indonesia” by Tim Hannigan, chapter 9 and 10.
  • “Understanding Islam in Indonesia” by Robert Pringle, chapter 3, sub-chapter: failed coup and bodies in rivers: the trauma of 1965-1966.
  • “Asian Godfathers” by Joe Studwell, page 27-30
  • “How Asia Works” by Joe Studwell, part 3, journey 5: Jakarta

Book review: Clear and direct answers to the most frequently asked questions on Islam

“What would a Muslim say?: Conversations, Questions, and Answers About Islam” by Ahmed Lotfy Rashed

To learn about Islam you can learn from its history, like those written beautifully in Islam: a short history by Karen Armstrong, No god but God by Reza Aslan, or Lost Islamic History by Firas Al Khateeb. You can read the religion from the current affairs perspective, like The World without Islam by Graham E. Fuller and Misquoting Muhammad by Jonathan A.C. Brown. You can also learn from books that analyses The Qur’an like If The Oceans Were Ink by Carla Powers, or read The Qur’an translation directly like one of the best translations by M.A.S Abdul Haleed.

But among the most popular books there is one vital angle that has yet to be covered: the everyday real questions or accusations by non-Muslims towards Islam. This book is a collection of e-mail correspondences between the author, interfaith instructor Ahmed Lotfy Rashed, and real-life people asking real-life questions.

I’m talking about genuine questions like: Why do Muslims are living the same way as 1400 years ago with no progress? Why do Muslims support terrorist attacks? Why do Muslim women wear a head scarf? Why are women oppressed in Muslim countries? Why can’t women get an education in some Muslim countries? What are Islam’s view on homosexuality? Why Muslim men can have 4 wives? What happen to people who do not believe in God or people from different faiths, are they going to hell? What happens when a Muslim marries a non-Muslim? Is it possible to be a good person and not be a Muslim? And many more, including questions on those conflicting passages in the Qur’an that leads to misinterpretations by extremists.

The author then gives the most reasurring answers to all of these sensitive questions with calm demeanor and gives elaborate but concise answers by quoting the Qur’an, hadiths, and important studies along the way. And the resulting discussions are nothing short of an eye opener.

One example is the questions regarding terrorism. Through the discussions it is suddenly clear that there is a lot of anti-Islam propaganda and misinformation in the media that are subjecting Islam in an unfair manner, and drowns out the mainstream Muslim voices. Rashed pointed out that “while it is true that some Muslims do evil deeds, it is also true that certain media outlets emphasize those evil acts without balancing what the religion actually preaches and what the majority actually practice.”

In fact, Rashed continues, in adressing suicide bombings, “Suicide is absolutely forbidden; the Prophet said that the man who purposefully takes his own life will automatically go to Hell and never see Paradise (see also the Qur’an 4:29-30). Killing noncombatants is absolutely forbidden; the Prophet repeatedly instructed his companions that the children, the women, the elderly, the farmer in the field, the craftsman in his shop, the laborers, and those who surrender SHOULD NOT BE HARMED. I think this is very clear evidence that Muhammad (peace be upon him) would not be okay with [the terror attacks]. And there are scholars and sheikhs around the world who say the same.”

Moreover, Rashed also pointed out that “if someone recruits Christians from the church so they can go bomb an abortion clinic, it is not right to say ‘your Christian faith enlists young men to carry out these acts.’ These acts are clearly against the teachings of Christianity. Likewise, all the acts that [an accuser] mentioned are against the teachings of Islam.” Rasheed then give emphasis that “the extremism of Muslim culture is a result of leaving the values and principles of Islam, not a result of following them.”

Another example are those questions related to treatment of women. The most frequently asked question is perhaps the most visible trait in Muslim women: about wearing the scarf. Rashed remarks “that head scarfs it is actually gives freedom to women, freedom from physical judgements. The same reason why Christian nuns and orthodox jewish women also cover their hair.” And when asked whether girls should or should not get an education, Rashed replied “of course girls can and should get an education. The Prophet said, ‘Seeking knowledge is an obligation on every Muslim, male and female.’ So what you see is that Muslims are doing something that is against the teachings of Islam.”

Muslims doing something that is against the teachings of Islam, which becomes the sole subjective focus of the media whilst ignoring the good deeds of the majority of Muslims, is the biggest PR problem Islam have right now. It’s like as if the media only show coverage of elegant and funny cats, while only show the nasty videos or pictures of dogs attacking humans and being a total beast. The world will only see dogs as a nasty creature that needs to be isolated from society, and see cats as the ultimate pet. The fact that there are many seeing-eye dogs, canine unit at the police, or many loyal stories like Hachiko in Japan, they will go unnoticed.

There are many, many more topics that are being thoroughly discussed in this book, which are impossible to cover all one by one in this short review. It is one of the most direct books that tackles the hot pressing topics on Islam right now, an absolutely vital book to read for those who are sceptical to, or even agressive towards, Islam.

It is also, in a way, a good guidebook for Muslims who constantly being harrassed and attacked based on their beliefs, on how to calmly and respectfully answer and straightened the wrong accusations. The author repeatedly says “With dialogue comes understanding”, and that is ultimately what this book does.

Book review: Veteran traders telling their fascinating war stories

“Hedge Fund Market Wizards: How Winning Traders Win” by Jack D. Schwager

It’s been a while since the last time I read New Market Wizards, when I was in university. And since then a lot of developments have occurred in the financial markets, including the rapid evolution of hedge funds. This 4th sequel of market wizards shows how far the industry has evolved. The wizards interviewed in the book are more technical, discussing more complex methods of trading, in an environment very different than the previous interviews.

Like the previous Market Wizards books, and indeed just like in the market, the trading methods or philosophy applied by the wizards could not be more different from one another. Some even directly contradict one another, with surprisingly good results for each of them. This, of course, remains the underlying message of the Market Wizards books: bottom line, we need to figure out who we are and what kind of strategies could work with our temperament and world view.

One interesting remark made by Jack Schwager when people were asking him to introduce them to one of the wizards, to work under their apprenticeship and learn about their methods/system that bring success, in which he answers that it will be useless because the main point is to develop our own trading system that cater to our character. Just like Colm O’shea said “If I try to teach you what I do, you will fail because you are not me. If you hang around me, you will observe what I do, and you may pick up some good habits. But there are a lot of things you will want to do differently.”

Nevertheless, as different as these Wizards can be, they all share some similar traits that become the foundation of their trading approach.

First and foremost, they’re all very dilligent about risk management, minimizing risk is almost the most sacred part of each one of these traders. They also trade only the size they’re comfortable with. To them the market is always right, Steve Clark commented that the market is not about facts but people’s opinion and positions that reflects their opinions, and they aren’t afraid to cut losses when they’re wrong. In a similar tone, Scott Ramsey said that there is one principle that you cannot violate: know what you can lose.

Meanwhile, as one wizards believe that price is not actually important (instead the size of your position is more crucial, to determine whether or not you can get out quickly), Edward Thorp complement this view by saying don’t bet more than you are comfortable with (and just take your time until you’re ready). Moreover, Jamie Mai highlighted that finding answers is much easier when you know in advance what the questions are, and another wizard gives the simplest wisdom of all when he said do what you do best, and so less of what you do badly.

Furthermore, as different as they may be, almost all of them point out the fact that profit is nice but it wont teach us anything, and one of the most important parts of trading is to make as much mistakes as we can, learn from them, and create our own system to avoid those mistakes.

And the interviews in this book provide us with exactly that, the raw and honest stories about their hopes, fears, and doubts, and their struggle and journey from nothing to become one of the best in the world. It is also, perhaps more importantly, about the long road on how they come to acquire/develop the skills or tools or principles that they eventually use to make them very successful (like Ray Dalio’s principles, which he then expanded into a very good book). And it’s all very human, and the lessons are also very applicable in any walks of life other than trading.

Just like the format in Dale Carnegie’s books, by the end of each chapter Jack Schwager provides a concluding paragraph to sum up the interviews, which is very helpful. But the real gem of the book is definitely the conclusion chapter, where everything are summarized so neatly, in which Schwager lists the ultimate 40 Market Wizards lessons, which, of course, I won’t spoil in this review.

This would definitely be the 1st book I recommend on anyone asking about trading/investing. An absolutely useful real-life manual for the battle on the financial market ground.

Book review: The perfect introduction to Stoicism

“The Daily Stoic: 366 Meditations on Wisdom, Perseverance, and the Art of Living” by Ryan Holiday

Stoicism is not a religion. In religion the sacred texts lay out the ideal way of life and guide us to try our best to live a sinless (perfect) life. Stoicism sees the world completely the opposite, it acknowledges the harsh realities of life, the chaotic mess of the world that is filled with imperfections. And instead of demanding us to live up to a certain perfect standard, it gives us the tools to handle the real broken situations on the ground.

Founded in Athens by Zeno of Citium in 3rd century BC, this branch of Greek philosophy got big in the Roman Empire, with its principle philosophers of Epictetus, Seneca, and ultimately Marcus Aurelius with his most-quoted memoir “Meditations.” The author of this book, Ryan Holiday, reads and re-reads Marcus Aurelius’ Meditations for 100+ times, which was the main reason why I choose this book as the 1st book I read on Stoicism.

At its core Stoicism gives us clarity on what we can and can’t control. It teaches us that although we can’t control what happen to us, we can control our perceptions about it. It teaches us that even though we can’t control how we feel, we can control how we react to it. It teaches us that all emotions are generated from within ourselves, and what comes out from us can be controlled by us.

As Ryan Holiday sums it up “[t]he three most essential parts of Stoic philosophy worth carrying with you every day, into every decision: Control your perceptions. Direct your actions properly. Willingly accept what’s outside your control.” Indeed, focus on the things that we can control, as Holiday elaborate “[i]f we can focus on making clear what parts of our day are within our control and what parts are not, we will not only be happier, we will have a distinct advantage over other people who fail to realize they are fighting an unwinnable battle.”

And suddenly the things that matter and the things that are insignificant become abundantly obvious. If we spend less/no time on the things that don’t matter and won’t make any difference, we will have more time for the things that we do have an influence over. Getting emotional over an injustice, for example, is being human. But unless we direct our grievances to something that fix or expose the injustice, getting overly emotional about it with no action won’t do any good. Another example is when we get ill. Don’t moan about the illness, but focus on how to cure it: figure out what the illness is, what’s the cure, and focus on the curing process. Dwelling on how ill you are won’t accomplish anything.

This simple but powerful philosophy is what kept Nelson Mandela sane during his 27 years in prison, as he reads and re-reads Marcus Aurelius’ book “Meditations” in Robben Island. Bill Clinton also read “Meditations” once a year, while Thomas Jefferson had a copy of Epictetus’ book “Discourses” on his bedside. Furthermore, Stoicism is also highly popular among Silicon Valley people and dilligently used to set the mental state of numerous pro athletes. And reading Seneca’s “Letters From a Stoic” was what prevented Tim Ferriss from killing himself during his darkest period of time, and turned his life around into becoming a successful author and investor, among others.

Indeed, Stoicism is not a religion, but if it were its 3 main gospels are Marcus Aurelius’ “Meditation”, Epictetus’ “Discourses” and Seneca’s “Letters from a Stoic.”

And being the ultimate compilation of Stoic wisdom, if Stoicism is a religion this book would be its book of hadiths, the book that compile the sayings of the prophet(s). It spreads over 366 mini chapters that comprise a year, which makes it easy to digest and can be learned one day at a time. In fact, this is the first time that I re-read a book straight after I finish reading it cover-to-cover, which I digest the 2nd cycle of reading according to the date of the year, one chapter each morning as a part of a new daily routine.

I could not recommend Stoicism enough, and this book is a perfect introduction to it.

Book review: A vital book to understand political Islam

“A world without Islam” by Graham E. Fuller

This is an absolute important book to understand today’s current affairs, which heavily linked with the rise of Islamic terrorism. The book is written by an ex-CIA analyst stationed in the Middle East, whom possess an incredible clarity over the geopolitics dynamics on the ground.

The premise of this book is to picture a world without Islam. How different it would have been, how the butterfly effects that never happened would turned out to be, and it’s very sobering. This, in effect, becomes a book about the history of the world that has nothing to do with Islam.

Chapter 2 and 3 cover the antagonism between Rome and Constantinople, which created the divisions between Western Roman Catholic and Eastern Orthodox, with very extensive details that could make this book easily becomes the history of the split within the Christian powers. This scism, according to Graham E. Fuller, was the predecessor of today’s East’s (especially Russia’s) resentment towards the West.

The proceeding chapters cover pretty much every single problematic interactions with Islam in the world, including the best analysis on the current problem immigrant Muslims have in Europe, the best statistics-heavy analysis on the Hindu-Muslim violence in India, including the root-cause of the tension in Kashmir, and why Muslims in America are generally more established compared with their European counterparts.

The book also covers Muslim-China relationship, including the root-cause of today’s tension in north west China till this day, and the fact that Muslims built the capital Beijing. Chapter 12 in particular is a masterpiece, analysing straight to the heart of the world’s problem today. And like most books analysing political Islam, this book also covers the complex problem in Israel-Palestine, which according to Fuller wasn’t rooted with Islam, but with Western European persecution of European Jews.

This is the perfect book to give to Islamophobic or anti-theists who think that religion is always the underlying problem. It is also a perfect book to read to understand the arguments about state and religion, and how religion is being used for political gains. Its conclusion gives the best answer to the immediate problems arises in the Middle East. But judging from the reason why the US is in the Middle East to begin with, these brilliant solutions would probably go unnoticed.

Never in my life that I have been so wrong about judging a book by its cover (and title). When purchasing the book I intended to read what the Islamophobics are saying about the religion, but right from the first couple of paragraphs I was in for a surprise. I did not even suspect this to be a very comprehensive book. But oh I have never been this happy to be dead wrong!

We need to talk about cryptomania

Every market crash is sparked by a trigger. Every trigger is preceded by a mania. Every mania began as an overshoot optimism. And every optimism started off by a justifying reason to be positive.

In 1880s the optimism was the invention of US railways. In 1920s the radio and motorcar companies. In 1980s the invention of microcomputers. In 1990s the optimism was the internet. In 2000s a complex invention of derivatives. And in 2010s? It’s the blockchain technology and its cryptocurrencies.

People in every era always say that this time is different, and they rightly point out at the new technology being invented. But the market consist of people who collectively decide the direction of the market, and people are fundamentally irrational. Throughout history human behaviour has not changed a bit since the 1st ancient market crash during the Roman Empire era, they’re still overly greedy at the optimism, and overly fearful at the sight of a collapse.

Just as George Soros explained in his book The Alchemy of Finance: “when events have thinking participants, the subject matter is no longer confined to facts but also includes the participants’ perceptions. The chain causation does not lead directly from fact to fact but from fact to perception and from perception to fact.”

Hence, when a new invention caught the exuberant eyes optimism quickly turns into an offshoot, a bubble.

It took approximately 5 to 7 years for each of the new inventions of 1880s, 1920s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s to turn into an overall market bubble, which then entered into a mania phase for 1 to 2 years before they respectively crashed in 1893, 1929, 1987, 2000, 2008.

Likewise, at first it took Bitcoin 1789 days from 2008-2017 to increase its price from $0 to $1000. But when the optimism grows, $1000 quickly rise into $5000 in half a year in 2017. And then we enter the overshoot optimism phase, that’s when the exuberant speculators come in: it took 13 days to rise from $6000 to $7000 in October 2017, 14 days from $7000 to $8000, 9 days from $8000 to $9000, 2 days from $9000 to $10,000, less than 1 day from $10,000 to $11000, 6 days from $11,000 to $12,000, a whopping 17 hours from $12,000 to $13,000, 4 hours from $13,000 to $14,000, 10 hours from $14,000 to $15,000, 5 hours from $15,000 to $16,000 and it hover around at nearly $20,000 before it fell down and began to be slightly saturated.

As Bitcoin started to get saturated, other cryptocurrencies began to rise too, everything from the serious like Ethereum and Ripple, to the ridiculous like CryptoKitties, DogeCoin and Okoin, to the bizarre like Venezuela’s Petro.

And suddenly everybody everywhere can’t stop talking about Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Every single Initial Coin Offerings (ICO) is greeted in the same manner as every Initial Public Offering (IPO) of any internet company in 1990s, or when people in 1720s all rushing to buy the South Sea Company’s stock: the price immediately shoots up no manner what their underlying is. In a true bubble manner Long Island Iced Tea change their name to have the word “blockchain” in it and as a result enjoyed an astronomical rise in share price (+200%), even though they still sells iced tea and has nothing to do with blockchain. Even Kodak is rising from the dead, to be a cryptocurrency company.

Indeed, a lot of companies have began to divert away from their core business to trade cryptocurrencies. This is exactly what happened in Japan 1980s with their Zaitech invention, where at the height of the bubble companies no longer gain their profits from their core work but from the practice of Zaitech and speculating on their Eigyo Tokkin account in the market, just like a steel company named Hanwa who raised over ¥4 trillion from speculating in the market (which is 20 times larger than their gains from their core business).

This, right here, is unmistakably signs of the mania phase of the bubble. This situation is not that different than the height of the 1920s stock market bubble described by Bernard Baruch: “taxi drivers told you what to buy. The shoeshine boy could give you a summary of the day’s financial news as he worked with rag and polish. An old beggar who regularly patrolled the street in front of my office now gave me tips and, I suppose, spent the money I and others gave him in the market. My cook had a brokerage account and followed the ticker closely. Her paper profits were quickly blown away in the gale of 1929.”

True to any mania phase, in the middle of the hype there’s opportunity for scams. Because cryptocurrency is independent and the industry has no proper regulation yet, it is truly a Wild West out there. All the oldest dirty tricks in the book – from the tricks used by John Law and Jesse Livermore, to Heinze and Morse, to Ivan Boesky – are all back.

However, while we’re quite possibly at the peak of the bubble, the fact remains: every crash always have to be sparked by a trigger. And while Tulipomania 1630s finally crashed after a rumor spread about a break of war in Nice, France (which people afraid could spread to the Netherlands), and while the derivatives-fueled subprime mortgage market crash was inevitable once the subprime mortgage borrowers all defaulted in the beginning of 2007, in the crypto world the trigger is far less visible and far less obvious. So this time it really is different.

Of all the possible risks in cryptocurrency, exchange risk come first in mind, with the likes of Mt Gox and Bitconnect, among many others, have famously been spectacularly hacked (or stolen by its owners). But perhaps the biggest thread comes in the form of regulatory risk. China, Japan and South Korea trading ban in this early January 2018 have sent enough danger alert to the crypto market and have caused several crashes.

But still, as we have witnessed several times in 2017, every time a crash comes, another willing buyers quickly jack the price back up, and even rising the price even more towards new record high. Hence the argument by crypto supporters, that this unregulated Wild West always self-sustain itself and will never crash.

So, are all the bubble riders justified? Maybe. As long as the bubble is still developing there’s no reason not to consciously, and carefully, participating for a neat profit. Just make sure that we don’t become the greater fool.

Nevertheless, just like in every market bubble, a [healthy] correction is eventually needed for the new invention to “return to the mean”, the “normal” price, before its true function can perform well in a healthy environment. The Black Friday crash 1929 wiped out the many amateur motorcar companies and left us with the likes of General Motors and Chrysler. Out of the Black Monday 1987 survivors we have Microsoft. The crash wiped out all the frauds and half-baked companies, and left us with Google, Apple and Amazon. Because while the mania was insane, the technology behind it (the internet) had a promising future. The railway, motorcar, microcomputer and even derivatives have also become a vital part of our modern society.

Likewise, while cryptomania is arguably starting to get out of control, the technology behind it (the blockchain) has a very promising future. But before we can reach the “normal” phase, the market will eventually need to wipe out the speculators, the scammers, and the amateur hitchhikers.

So the million dollar question then becomes this, when will the healthy correction going to take place? And what will cause it? It is very interesting to watch, because like a good movie nobody knows where the plot of this story is heading.

Further reading on the enigma of market crash