Now that the dust has settled, what the hell happened between Iran and Israel’s ceasefire?
After 10 days since Israel began to attack Iran on 13 June 2025, Israel was heavily beaten by Iran’s response, far more than they’ve expected, as confirmed by the panic reaction by Israel’s Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir and the fact that Israeli government threatened against anyone who post anything about the damages in Tel Aviv and Haifa. And they badly needed a US intervention.
But Donald Trump cannot afford to join the war – not politically, not financially – and so he did the next best thing: he had a big show off of his B-2 bomber plane and strike Iran’s nuclear facility to show presence, but with a close to none damages.
Iran received the signal, and they too had to save face by doing what they’ve threatened to do if US attacks Iran: Iran retaliated by striking US military base, BUT the one in Iran’s ally Qatar, where they informed Qatar beforehand and thus the strike was easily intercepted also with minimum damage and no casualties. Both US and Iran saved their respective faces, that’s why Trump immediately announced ceasefire on 24 June 2025 just hours after Iran’s strike.
But then Israel attacked District 7 in Tehran not long after, and Iran responded by saying they have not received any ceasefire proposal, proceeded to strike Israel back, but tell the media that they are willing to consider a ceasefire if Israel stop shooting. That’s why Trump all of a sudden got mad with Israel (a rarity for a US president), and only then Israel backed down.
And just look at what happened after the ceasefire, the EU surprisingly pressured Israel to stop the genocide in Gaza or face a sanction. Is this part of the ceasefire deal? Because there’s no way in hell that the EU suddenly develop a conscience, not with that Stockholm Syndrome in tact. It’s more plausible that they are trying to save Israel from a total Iranian destruction (as argued by former Trump propagandist Steve Bannon), in exchange for the genocide to finally stop.
The next few days will be interesting, whether Israel can commit to it (which would also mean a return to Benjamin Netanyahu’s corruption trial IF the “war” in Gaza is over). Or will they (and by they I mean Israel, US, UK, EU, and their “allies” in the Gulf) regroup and make their next plan to face the surprisingly very strong Iran?
This whole ceasefire saga sure feel like Yevgeny Prigozhin’s advances on 23 June 2023 that was just 2 hours away from toppling Vladimir Putin in Moscow, before bizarrely Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko brokered a deal that curb the coup attempt. Prigozhin was only 120-200 KM away from conducting a regime change in Russia, a rare window of opportunity that we likely won’t see again for a long time, just like Iran had the chance to once and for all destroy this far-right Zionist regime in Israel (and replace it with a better one that supports the Oslo Accords).
Because, you know what happened with Prigozhin since the coup attempt? Putin regrouped after the curbed attempt, and Prigozhin was later killed in a “plane crash” on 23 August 2023.
But nevertheless, here we are now. Trump said that the US and Iran will meet next week, resuming their scheduled talk that was supposed to happen in Oman on 15 June, before Israel intervene by striking Iran 2 days before to prevent a US-Iran peace talk. And meanwhile, Trump also declared that the US will personally “save Netanyahu” from being prosecuted by the Israeli courts, which has been the number 1 reason for Netanyahu to keep prolonging and escalating the war. Is this also part of the deal?
So it appears that peace could really potentially happen, and the genocide in Gaza could finally end. But at what cost? Netanyahu could actually get away with genocide and never be held accountable for his war crimes and his domestic crimes. And the settler-colonial apartheid regime will live on.
Ceasefire is not accountability.
THE CHAOS THEORY 